The forecasts depicted below combine WPC forecasts of fronts, isobars and high/low pressure centers with the NDFD depiction of expected weather type for days .5 to 2.5 ahead. Each frame represents 6 hours. A short range forecast discussion for the CONUS is available below the short term loop.

Short Term Forecast Frontal Systems and Isobars Loop

Short Term Frontal Systems and Isobars Loop

Short Range Forecast Discussion

FXUS01 KWBC 051925
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 06 2026 - 00Z Sun Mar 08 2026

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible across the
central U.S. tonight through Saturday...

...Favorable conditions for the spreading of wildfires over the
southern High Plains...

...Wintry weather for the central/northern Rockies and portions of
central New England tonight into Friday...

...Temperatures will be well above average from the Great Plains
to much of the eastern U.S. into Friday-Saturday...

An amplified upper level pattern with troughing over the Rockies
and ridging downstream over the East will set up a favorable
pattern for severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain/flash
flooding from portions of western Texas into southern Kansas this
afternoon/evening into tonight, as a dryline supports thunderstorm
development. Tornadoes, large hail, and high winds are all
possible, and the Storm Prediction Center indicates a Slight
(level 2/5) to Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather.
Localized flooding is possible as well, as shown by the Marginal
Risk from WPC. Into Friday, severe weather is forecast to shift
and expand northeastward across parts of the Mississippi Valley as
a warm front moves well northeastward. An Enhanced Risk is once
again in place, for eastern Oklahoma/Kansas to western
Missouri/Arkansas. Flash flooding potential shows relatively
higher chances across the Ark-La-Tex region into southern Oklahoma
with a Slight Risk, but localized floods may occur into the
Midwest as well. As a cold front moves eastward into Saturday,
this should clear out thunderstorm chances in parts of the Plains,
shunting into the Ohio Valley/Appalachians southwestward across
the Tennessee Valley and lingering across Texas into the Lower
Mississippi Valley with potential severe weather and flash
flooding.

On the dry side of the dryline and frontal system, gusty winds and
low relative humidities will favor an increased threat for
wildfire development in the southern to central High Plains for
the next few days. Critical fire weather areas are in place from
the Storm Prediction Center. Meanwhile on the cold side of the
frontal boundary, areas of snow are likely across portions of the
Intermountain West and Rockies tonight and continuing for the
central Rockies into Friday. Locally heavy snow is possible with
snowfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches likely for the higher
terrain, with accumulations over a foot possible for a few
locations.

The ridge aloft and a warm front lifting north at the surface will
spread above average warmth to much of the central to eastern U.S.
through late week. Temperatures are forecast to be 20 to 30
degrees above average for the Mid-Mississippi into the Ohio Valley
Friday. Daily records are likely to be widespread, as in some
areas these temperatures are more typical of May and June. The
Plains should temporarily moderate closer to average Friday and
Saturday.

New England will stay cooler than average due to its location
north of a stationary front draped across the Mid-Atlantic coast
and as a secondary cold frontal surge moves through. Low pressure
tracking south of the region will allow for a wintry mix of snow,
sleet and freezing rain across portions of central New England
late this evening into early Friday morning with freezing rain
likely being the dominant hazard in and around the higher terrain
from interior New York into Massachusetts with ice accumulation
values of 0.10 to 0.25 inches (locally higher) possible.
Precipitation should end on Friday across the Northeast but
temperatures will remain cool with highs only in the 30s for many
locations across New England. By Saturday the relative warmth
could finally spread there.


Tate


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




$$

Depicted Weather Types

  • NDFD Rain (Chance) – There is chance of measurable rain (≥0.01″) at the valid time.
  • NDFD Rain (Likely) – Measurable rain (≥0.01″) is likely at the valid time.
  • NDFD Snow (Chance) – There is chance of measurable snowfall (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
  • NDFD Snow (Likely) – Measurable snow (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
  • NDFD Mix (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
  • NDFD Mix (Likely) – Measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
  • NDFD Ice (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
  • NDFD Ice (Likely) – Measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
  • NDFD T-Storm (Chance) – There is a chance of thunderstorms at the valid time.   Areas are displayed with diagonal hatching enclosed in a dark red border.
  • NDFD T-Storm (Likely and/or Severe) – Thunderstorms are likely and/or the potential exists for some storms to reach severe levels at the valid time.