WPC Frontal Systems Short Term Forecast

The forecasts depicted below combine WPC forecasts of fronts, isobars and high/low pressure centers with the NDFD depiction of expected weather type for days .5 to 2.5 ahead. Each frame represents 6 hours. A short range forecast discussion for the CONUS is available below the short term loop.

FXUS01 KWBC 140803
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 14 2025 - 12Z Sat Aug 16 2025

...Locally heavy rain and flash flooding possible near the
Mid-Atlantic/Carolina coast today followed by more scattered
thunderstorms on Friday and into the weekend...

...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms expected to impact
portions of the Northern Plains to the upper Midwest through the
next couple of days...

...A couple of days of heat across the central High Plains as
major to locally extreme HeatRisk is forecast for northern to
central Florida...

Under a stagnant weather pattern, warm and moist air already in
place across much of the eastern U.S. into the Deep South will
continue to promote the developments of scattered showers and
thunderstorms within this area ahead of a weak upper trough.  The
thunderstorms are expected to be more numerous from late afternoon
into the evening hours through the next couple of days.  Locally
heavy rain and flash flooding will be possible today into tonight
near the Mid-Atlantic/Carolina coast where a trough of low
pressure lingers while a cold front nudges toward the area from
interior Mid-Atlantic.  A Slight Risk (Level 2/4) of Excessive
Rainfall is highlighted for the area near the coast.  By Friday,
the southward progression of the front should usher in a more
stable airmass, in turn decreasing thunderstorm coverage across
the Tennessee Valley.  Nevertheless, isolated instances of flash
flooding remain possible ahead of the front extending from the
lower Mississippi Valley into the Northeast.

Meanwhile, a deepening low pressure system over the Canadian
prairies will drive a warm front across the Northern Plains. 
Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to be
triggered and then impact portions of the Northern Plains to the
upper Midwest through the next couple of days.  The primary
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are damaging wind
gusts and isolated large hail.  As the warm front advances
eastward and then collides with a cold front pushing in from the
Canadian prairies, the severe weather threat will then head
further east across the upper Midwest on Friday, reaching into the
upper Great Lakes by Saturday morning. 

Cooler temperatures behind the cold front will allow for
temperatures to gradually trend below normal across the northern
High Plains and especially the Northwest U.S. for the latter part
of the week.  This will bring a break from the hot weather that
portions of the Intermountain West have been experiencing.  Over
the next couple of days, the core of the heat will shift focus
into the central Plains, where high temperatures reaching the
century mark can be expected.  Across northern Florida, a slight
increase of heat and humidity is enough to raise HeatRisk into
Major and locally Extreme levels through the next couple of days
as the Bermuda High builds westward into the Sunshine State. 
Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will linger across the southern
Rockies where scattered thunderstorms are expected to spread
gradually northward into the Four Corners by the weekend.

Kong/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$

• NDFD Rain (Chance) – There is chance of measurable rain (≥0.01″) at the valid time.
• NDFD Rain (Likely) – Measurable rain (≥0.01″) is likely at the valid time.
• NDFD Snow (Chance) – There is chance of measurable snowfall (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
• NDFD Snow (Likely) – Measurable snow (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
• NDFD Mix (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
• NDFD Mix (Likely) – Measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
• NDFD Ice (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
• NDFD Ice (Likely) – Measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
• NDFD T-Storm (Chance) – There is a chance of thunderstorms at the valid time.   Areas are displayed with diagonal hatching enclosed in a dark red border.
• NDFD T-Storm (Likely and/or Severe) – Thunderstorms are likely and/or the potential exists for some storms to reach severe levels at the valid time.