WPC Frontal Systems Short Term Forecast

The forecasts depicted below combine WPC forecasts of fronts, isobars and high/low pressure centers with the NDFD depiction of expected weather type for days .5 to 2.5 ahead. Each frame represents 6 hours. A short range forecast discussion for the CONUS is available below the short term loop.

FXUS01 KWBC 220812
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026

...Scattered snow squalls to create dangerous travel from the
interior Northeast to northern/central New England through
Friday...

...Dangerously cold Arctic air spills out over the Great Plains
and Eastern U.S through the weekend....

...Major Winter storm to bring crippling ice and sleet to portions
of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley Friday...


A potent mid-level trough pivoting through southeastern Canada
will continue producing lake effect snow showers downwind of the
Great Lakes through Friday. In addition to the lake effect snow,
snow showers and snow squalls are likely to develop behind the
associated strong surface cold front moving through the Northeast
today, with a second round of snow squalls possible on Friday. The
first round of snow squalls is likely to develop across Upstate
New York this morning before moving through New England, with
multiple rounds of snow squalls possible in some areas. The second
round is expected Friday afternoon and should move steadily west
to east across the region. Snow squalls create an extremely
dangerous combination of heavy snow rates and strong, gusty winds,
leading to snow-covered roads and near-zero visibility. If you
encounter a snow squall while driving and cannot safely exit the
roadway, reduce speed, turn on your lights and hazards and avoid
slamming on the brakes.

Meanwhile, dangerously cold and very dry Arctic air will expand
into the Northern/Central Plains, Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today,
before spilling out into the Southern Plains, Mississippi Valley
and Midwest tonight. This arctic blast will be accompanied by
gusty winds, leading to dangerous wind chills. The coldest wind
chills may fall below -50 across the Northern Plains with sub-zero
wind chills reaching as far southeast as the Mid-Atlantic,
Mid-Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. These wind chills will
pose life-threatening risk of hypothermia and frostbite to exposed
skin. Additionally, any power outages caused by the impending
major winter storm could prolong and compound this risk. Ensure
pets and animals have protection from the cold. Extreme cold
warnings are in effect for much of the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest, while cold weather advisories and extreme cold watches
are in effect farther south across the Southern Plains and
Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley.

This life-threatening cold air, in conjunction with a surface
front to its south and a deep mid-level disturbance moving through
northern Mexico will produce a large, long-duration winter storm
tracking from the Southern High Plains/Rockies to the Northeast.
Heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain will proliferate across the
Southern Rockies/Plains into the Mid-South beginning Friday,
spreading eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and New England this
weekend. Extremely cold air behind the storm will prolong
hazardous travel and infrastructure impacts. Widespread freezing
rain and sleet are expected south of the primary snow axis,
crippling portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley on Friday. Significant and damaging ice accumulations are
likely, with the potential for long-duration power outages,
extensive tree damage, and extremely dangerous or impassable
travel conditions. Dangerous ice and sleet impacts shift east into
parts of the Southeast, Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic this
weekend.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$

• NDFD Rain (Chance) – There is chance of measurable rain (≥0.01″) at the valid time.
• NDFD Rain (Likely) – Measurable rain (≥0.01″) is likely at the valid time.
• NDFD Snow (Chance) – There is chance of measurable snowfall (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
• NDFD Snow (Likely) – Measurable snow (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
• NDFD Mix (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
• NDFD Mix (Likely) – Measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.  “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
• NDFD Ice (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
• NDFD Ice (Likely) – Measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
• NDFD T-Storm (Chance) – There is a chance of thunderstorms at the valid time.   Areas are displayed with diagonal hatching enclosed in a dark red border.
• NDFD T-Storm (Likely and/or Severe) – Thunderstorms are likely and/or the potential exists for some storms to reach severe levels at the valid time.