The forecasts depicted below combine WPC forecasts of fronts, isobars and high/low pressure centers with the NDFD depiction of expected weather type for days .5 to 2.5 ahead. Each frame represents 6 hours. A short range forecast discussion for the CONUS is available below the short term loop.
Short Term Forecast Frontal Systems and Isobars Loop
Short Range Forecast Discussion
FXUS01 KWBC 262002 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 401 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 00Z Thu Mar 27 2025 - 00Z Sat Mar 29 2025 ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over Southern Texas on Wednesday and Thursday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday and over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley and southern Texas on Thursday... ...Light snow over parts of the Northeast on Wednesday into Friday; light freezing rain over the Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday... An upper-level trough over the Northeast will trigger light snow over parts of the Northeast through Thursday evening. On Wednesday evening, a front over the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley will move across the Great Lakes to the Northeast by Friday morning, producing more light snow over the Northeast. In the meantime, another front over the West Coast on Wednesday afternoon and then moves to the Northern Rockies to the Southwest by Friday evening. The system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over the Pacific Northwest from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Pacific Northwest through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There is an added threat of hail, two inches or greater over the region. Furthermore, Wednesday evening, rain will develop over parts of Northern California, and by Thursday morning, after the front passes, snow levels will lower over the Northwest and California. From Thursday into Friday, the storm will produce rain and snow at the highest elevations over the Cascades, Northern California, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Meanwhile, on Thursday, a third front extending from the Southeast to the Southern Plains will linger over/near the Western Gulf Coast. Moisture flow off the Gulf of America will stream northward over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley, producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the region overnight Wednesday. Moreover, on Wednesday night, upper-level energy will develop an upper-level low over Texas. The developing upper-level low will pull move moisture off the Gulf of America, producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain through Thursday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of southern Texas through Thursday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. Many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. The excessive rainfall threat will continue over the Western Gulf Coast on Thursday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western Gulf Coast from Thursday into Friday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. Many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. In addition, the storm will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Western Gulf Coast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Western Gulf Coast Thursday through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. By Friday morning, the threat of excessive rainfall decreases slightly to a Slight Risk for Friday. The severe thunderstorm threat will move into the Central Gulf Coast with a Slight Risk on Friday. Furthermore, On Wednesday evening, a fourth front extends from the Northern/Central Plains into the Northern Rockies with a wave of low pressure over the Northern High Plains that will slowly strengthen and move to the Central Plains by Thursday afternoon. The low then moves northeastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley by Friday evening. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms over the Middle Mississippi Valley overnight Wednesday. On Thursday, the system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley Thursday through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, as the wave of low pressure moves northward overnight Thursday into Friday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachians. Also, on Friday, light snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley along the northern edge of the precipitation shield. Along the rain/snow line, freezing rain will develop from the Northern High Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. The heaviest freezing rain will be over the Arrowhead of Minnesota with 0.10 inches of ice. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$
Depicted Weather Types
- NDFD Rain (Chance) – There is chance of measurable rain (≥0.01″) at the valid time.
- NDFD Rain (Likely) – Measurable rain (≥0.01″) is likely at the valid time.
- NDFD Snow (Chance) – There is chance of measurable snowfall (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
- NDFD Snow (Likely) – Measurable snow (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
- NDFD Mix (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time. “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
- NDFD Mix (Likely) – Measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time. “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
- NDFD Ice (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
- NDFD Ice (Likely) – Measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
- NDFD T-Storm (Chance) – There is a chance of thunderstorms at the valid time. Areas are displayed with diagonal hatching enclosed in a dark red border.
- NDFD T-Storm (Likely and/or Severe) – Thunderstorms are likely and/or the potential exists for some storms to reach severe levels at the valid time.