Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Expires:No;;185401
AXNT20 KNHC 210551
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Apr 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: 
Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning along with very rough seas
for their AGADIR Marine Zone, through 21/0600 UTC. Please see the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST and WARNING issued by Meteo-France at 
website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of 
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then extends south-southwestward to 
03N21W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 03N21W across
00N30W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is occurring near and up to 200 nm north of the
ITCZ between 21W and 33W, and south of the monsoon trough from 01N
to 04N between 10W and 21W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms in the Caribbean
waters near the Panama-Colombia border.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1026 mb high off
the Carolinas coast across northern Florida to near Tampico,
Mexico. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
present across the Florida Straits and off the northern Yucatan
Peninsula. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are seen at
the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds
with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the
aforementioned high and a surface trough over the Yucatan 
Peninsula will support fresh to strong SE winds over the 
southeastern Gulf early this week, along with moderate to rough 
seas. Conditions will start to improve across much of the Gulf 
Tue as the high moves eastward into the central Atlantic, 
allowing the pressure gradient to decrease. One exception is off 
the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula where pulses of strong winds 
are expected as a diurnal trough moves into the waters. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A strong 1026 mb high pressure off the Carolinas coast continue to
support a robust trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds are persisting across the
central basin, Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba and near the Windward
Passage. Seas at the central basin and near the Windward Passage
range from 7 to 10 ft, while 4 to 6 ft seas are found at the lee 
of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate with locally 
fresh NE to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the 
Caribbean Seas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for 
weather in the basin.

For the forecast, expect fresh to strong NE winds across the 
central and western Caribbean through Mon night. As the
aforementioned high shifts eastward, decreasing pressure gradient
will cause these winds to diminish through late week. Large 
northerly swell impacting the Mona and Anegada passages will 
gradually subside through midweek. Gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas will then prevail through the end of the 
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning about 
gale-force winds at the eastern Atlantic.

A surface trough extends southwestward from the central Atlantic
across 31N58W to a 1015 mb low pressure near 27N61W, then
continues southward to just east of the Leeward Islands. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed north of 22N and 
between 55W and 63W. Convergent surface winds are coupling with 
divergent winds aloft to produce scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms near the Cabo Verde Islands. Refer to the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic 
Basin.

Gradient between a 1026 mb high off the U.S. Carolinas coast and 
the aforementioned 1015 mb low is causing fresh to strong N winds
and 8 to 10 ft seas north of 26N between the low and 65W. Fresh
with locally strong NNE to ENE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are
evident from 20N to 26N between the surface trough and the 
Bahamas. North of 26N between 65W and the Florida/northern Georgia
coast, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
dominate. To the east, north of 05N between 35W and 60W/Lesser
Antilles, moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft
are noted. Moderate to gentle NE to E winds along with 4 to 6 ft
seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, anticipate fresh to strong N to ENE
winds and rough seas across the western Atlantic, and near the 
Bahamas and Greater Antilles to continue into Mon. Both the trough
and the high pressure will weaken Tue, loosening the pressure 
gradient should lead to improving conditions through midweek.

$$

Chan