Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Expires:No;;724218
AXNT20 KNHC 031632
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jan 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: The Gale Warning for the Agadir marine
zone issued by Meteo-France expired at 03/1800 UTC. 12-18 ft seas
and near-gale force W to SW winds continue in Agadir and near the
Canary Islands. For more information, please see the latest High 
Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website: 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from
06N17W to 02N51W. No significant convection is noted at this 
time. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

The pressure gradient between 1018 mb high pressure centered near
Miami, FL, and a frontal boundary across the southern United
States is supporting fresh to locally strong S to SW winds and 
4-6 ft seas across the northern Gulf. In the southern Gulf, S to 
SW winds are gentle to moderate with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SW to W winds and 
moderate seas will continues over the northern Gulf waters today, 
ahead of a stationary front across the Gulf coast states. The 
front will enter the northern Gulf late this afternoon and 
progress over the central basin through Sun, supporting moderate 
to locally fresh N winds in the wake of the front. High pressure 
will settle over the basin early next week, leading to moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough extends across far eastern Cuba and Jamaica.
Moderate or weaker trades, and 3-5 ft seas, prevail across the
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are 
expected over the central and southeastern Caribbean through Sun 
as a subtropical ridge prevails to the north along 25N-26N. The 
ridge will shift eastward Sun night through Mon as a cold front 
moves into the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, fresh NE winds are
forecast to develop across the Greater Antilles and through the 
Atlantic passages early next week and prevail through Wed night as
high pressure builds to the north, behind the new cold front. 
Fresh to strong NE winds will also resume off Colombia Wed 
evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by 1018
mb high pressure centered near Miami, FL and 1021 mb high pressure
centered near 27N37W. The latest satellite scatterometer data
indicates moderate or weaker trades across the basin, with 4-7 ft
seas. In the far eastern Atlantic, seas greater than 8 ft are
north of 22N and east of 32W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds will 
develop over the NW Atlantic offshore zones today ahead of this 
low pressure system and frontal system moving through the SE U.S. 
Localized near-gale force winds will be possible offshore of 
northern Florida tonight, and rough seas are expected near and to 
the east of these winds. An associated cold front will move 
offshore of the SE U.S. tonight into Sun and progress eastward 
through early next week, supporting fresh to strong SW winds and 
rough seas ahead of the front, and fresh to locally strong N to NW
winds and rough seas in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, 
high pressure will build north of the region early next week. 

$$
Mahoney