Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Expires:No;;426359
AXNT20 KNHC 240538
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jan 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move across
the basin Sunday and Monday. Arctic high pressure settling in behind
the front is expected to drive strong to near-gale-force NW winds
across NW portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night. Gale conditions
are possible over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night into 
Mon, and over the waters offshore Veracruz on Mon and Mon night. 
Seas will quickly build behind the front as well, with rough to 
very rough seas expected. Seas look to peak around 16-18 ft in the
SW Gulf on Monday.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, then continues SW to near 06N16W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N16W to 01N23W to 03N33W to 00N48W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 20W
and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends across the northern Gulf waters, from the 
western Florida Panhandle to 27N92W and to the central coast of 
Texas. Scattered showers are seen near this boundary, while
moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail north of the
front. Otherwise, a surface ridge dominates the remainder of the 
Gulf region supporting a gentle to moderate E wind flow and slight
seas. 

For the forecast, a cold front extending from the central Florida
Panhandle to 27.5N87W and to the central Texas coast will linger 
through Sat morning before it lifts N as a warm front, ahead of a 
strong Arctic cold front expected Sat afternoon. The cold front 
will approach the Texas coast early on Sat, then stall across the 
Texas coastal waters Sat afternoon as low pressure forms near the 
southern Texas coast and rides NE along the front through Sun. The
front will then move SE across the entire basin Sun through Mon 
evening. Strong reinforcing Arctic high pressure behind the front 
is expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of
the Gulf Sun and Sun night, then possible gale conditions over 
the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night into Mon, then gales over
the waters offshore Veracruz on Mon and Mon night. Conditions 
will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front 
moves SE into the NW Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer passes show fresh to strong trades 
over the south-central to SW Caribbean due to the pressure 
gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the 
Colombian/Panamanian low. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. 
Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere 
across the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Windward 
Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas prevail across 
the NW part of the basin.

For the forecast, broad central Atlantic high pressure will 
maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central 
Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early 
next week, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong 
speeds at night through Sun, then to near gale force afterward 
into midweek. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will 
slowly subside through the weekend, but remain around 8 ft through
early next week. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late 
Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras 
by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front
before slowly diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds Wed. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from the Moroccan coast near 26N15W to 
25N21W to 26N29W, where it transitions to a shear line that 
extends to 31N38W. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are N 
of the front and shear line. Very rough seas of 12-16 ft are seen
N of 28N. Elsewhere, surface ridging dominates much of the 
Atlantic, with fresh to strong trades and seas of 7-11 ft 
prevailing across much of the Atlantic S of 25N and E of 60W. 
Moderate to fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas are S of 25N between 60W 
and 70W, with moderate or weaker winds and seas elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, weak 1017 mb low pressure is near 
29N74.5W, with a trough extending SW into the NW Bahamas. 
Meanwhile, high pressure is centered across the central Atlantic 
and extends a broad ridge to just S of Bermuda. The low and ridge 
will shift slowly NE through Sat night. Fresh to strong S to SW 
winds will develop over the NW forecast waters Sun evening through
early Mon in advance of a strong Arctic cold front that is 
expected to move offshore northeastern Florida early Mon. Winds to
near gale will develop just N of the area early on Mon. The front
will reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and Straits of 
Florida early Mon evening, from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and 
eastern Cuba Tue evening, then weaken as it reaches from near 
31N50W to 27N60W and stationary to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba
by late on Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas 
are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue, becoming 
mostly fresh NE winds on Wed within about 180 nm NW of the frontal
boundary. 

$$
Adams