Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Expires:No;;223370
AXNT20 KNHC 262353
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Mar 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W and extends to 
05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 01N50W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is occurring south of the monsoon trough from
02S to 06N east of 19W, and south of 04N between 27W and 40W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1023 mb high is centered off the coast of the Florida Panhandle
near 30N86W, supporting light winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft across 
the northern and eastern Gulf of America. Convergent surface winds
are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across the 
northwestern basin. Elsewhere, a surface trough has been analyzed 
over the southwestern Bay of Campeche, supporting fresh to strong 
NE winds in the eastern bay and just offshore of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Otherwise, moderate NE to E winds prevail over the 
remainder of the basin. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in the south- 
central through northwestern Gulf. 

For the forecast, high pressure centered just offshore the 
western Florida Panhandle will support gentle to moderate winds 
over much of the basin this evening. Winds will pulse to fresh to 
strong near the Yucatan coast tonight and Thu night. Winds will 
increase to moderate to fresh across the NW portion Thu, then 
further increase to fresh to strong Thu night into Fri while 
expanding in coverage before beginning to diminish early Sat. Seas
generated by these winds will build to around 10 ft. A weak cold 
front may move into the NW Gulf late Sun night into early next 
week, with winds diminishing to gentle to moderate ahead of it. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough has been analyzed over southeastern Cuba to 
18N76W, leading to isolated showers and thunderstorms in the 
region. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds prevail 
across much of the Caribbean as low pressure resides over Colombia
and high pressure builds in the Gulf of America. Strong NE winds 
are found just offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of 
Venezuela, where seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted. Farther west, 
locally rough seas generated by strong winds offshore of Colombia 
are noted in the south-central basin north of Panama. Seas of 5 to
7 ft prevail over the southwestern, central and eastern 
Caribbean, with seas of 2 to 4 ft in the northwestern basin. 

For the forecast, winds off Colombia will pulse to near gale 
force speeds tonight through at least the upcoming weekend, 
strongest at night and early morning. Fresh to strong winds will 
develop in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and over the 
waters between Cuba Thu night through Fri night. Similar winds 
will develop offshore central Honduras and south of Hispaniola 
from Thu night through the upcoming weekend and into early next 
week. Mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, 
except diminishing to light to gentle in the lee of Cuba late in 
the weekend. Meanwhile, northerly swell may impact the Atlantic 
Passages this weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N68W southwestward to 23N72W, where 
it transitions to a trough that continues through southeastern 
Cuba. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring along 
the front, generally north of 23N between 72W and 64W. Farther 
west, a weakening cold front reaches from 31N75W southwestward to 
northern Florida, with a prefrontal trough noted to the south 
extending through the northern Bahamas. No significant convection 
is noted with these features. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of
3 to 5 ft prevail in this region. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold
front stretches from 31N23W to 26N39W, and fresh to strong NE 
winds and seas of 8 to 14 ft are occurring north of the front. 
Otherwise, a 1038 mb high centered north of the area near 38N36W 
extends ridging through much of the central Atlantic. Fresh to 
strong trade winds are occurring over much of the open waters, 
with the strongest winds noted from 10N to 25N between 25W and 
55W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are occurring in this region. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from 
31N68W to the SE Bahamas will shift slowly eastward through early 
Thu while weakening. Another cold front extending through northern
Florida will reach from 31N60W to the SE Bahamas by Thu evening 
where it will merge with the old front, then gradually washing out
through early Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the 
front, bringing an increase in winds across much of the waters 
south of 29N by the end of the week and into the weekend. Rough 
seas will build across the same waters as a result. Winds and seas
will start to decrease later in the weekend as the high shifts 
eastward and weakens. Another cold front may move off the SE 
United States coast by early Tue.

$$
ADAMS