000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080857 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Terry Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021 300 AM CST Mon Nov 08 2021 The overall convective organization of the low-latitude Tropical Storm Terry has become somewhat ragged looking since the previous advisory, although there has been a recent small burst of deep convection near and northeast of the estimated low-level center. A 0255Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass indicated that surface winds had decreased to 29 kt northeast of the center during the earlier convective waning period. However, the recent increase in convection with cloud tops of around -85C may have locally enhanced those ASCAT wind speeds and, thus, Terry's intensity has only been lowered to 35 kt. Terry's initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous track forecast or synoptic reasoning. Terry and it is expected to continue moving west-northwestward through today, followed by a turn toward the west on Tuesday. A general westward motion is forecast on days 2-5 as a sprawling deep-later ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to remain entrenched across most of the eastern North Pacific. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies along the southern edge of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track model envelope. ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B scatterometer surface wind data from 0300-0400Z showed that Terry's low-level wind field had become elongated east-to-west, and that the radius of maximum winds had also increased to at least 70 nmi in the northeastern quadrant. Although the deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to remain relatively low at less than 10 kt, the GFS and ECMWF global models are forecasting moderate mid-level shear to undercut the otherwise favorable upper-level outflow layer, resulting in a continued disruption of the convective pattern. As a result, gradual weakening is expected during the 5-day period, with Terry now forecast to become a tropical depression later today. Otherwise, no other changes were made to the previous intensity forecast, with the new NHC intensity forecast closely following a blend of the simple and corrected-consensus intensity model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 9.6N 105.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 10.0N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 10.5N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 10.7N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 10.9N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 10.9N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 10.9N 119.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z 10.7N 125.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart