Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 262050 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Visible satellite imagery and a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass show that the low-level center was slightly further east than the previous advisory, on the southeastern side of the convection. Convection has been waning over the last few hours, with warming cloud tops. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 44 kt, and the peak satellite derived winds from ASCAT-B were 36 kt. Using this data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. The wind radii have been adjusted and refined with the scatterometer data. Sonia is moving slowly west-northwestward at an estimated motion of 295/03 kt. This west-northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is anticipated over the next day or so. Once the system begins to weaken, the storm will turn back towards the west steered by the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast lies near the previous, between the HCCA corrected consensus and Google DeepMind aids. Sonia continues to deal with moderate southerly wind shear, which will increase over the next couple of days. The latest sea surface temperature analysis shows that the system is moving into sub 27C ocean temperatures, with even cooler SSTs, and a drier more stable airmass along the forecast track. Given the latest satellite trends and the less than favorable environmental conditions, intensity aids show a gradual weakening trend. The GFS and ECMWF model simulated IR satellite shows that the system will struggle to produce enough convection to be categorized as a tropical system by 60h. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and lies near the consensus aids, becoming a remnant low in 60h and then dissipating by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 13.8N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 14.1N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 14.3N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 14.5N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 14.7N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 14.7N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z 14.5N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
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