Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 272102 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Sonia is producing only intermittent convection over the low-level center. Previous convection that was displaced well north of the center has dissipated. Latest satellite intensity estimates have decreased and range from 30 to 35 kt from SAB, TAFB and UW-CIMSS. Using these estimates and the current satellite presentation, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving westward at an estimated motion of 275/6 kt. This general motion should continue as the system weakens and is steered by the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous, only nudged slightly to the right towards the HCCA and Google DeepMind solutions. Moderate wind shear, and a drier more stable airmass have taken their toll on Sonia today. The GFS model simulated IR satellite shows that the system will not produce anymore convection, while the ECMWF shows a burst occuring later this evening or tonight. The latest NHC forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 24 h, although that could occur sooner if organized deep convection does not return over the low-level center tonight. The system is forecast to dissipate and open into a trough in about two to three days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 14.1N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 14.2N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 14.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0600Z 14.7N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 29/1800Z 14.6N 127.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
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