Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FONT14 KNHC 142044
PWSAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024               
2100 UTC THU NOV 14 2024                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

COZUMEL MX     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)  12(22)   4(26)   X(26)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   6(12)   2(14)   X(14)

GUANAJA        34 20  37(57)   6(63)   3(66)   1(67)   1(68)   X(68)
GUANAJA        50  X   7( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
GUANAJA        64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN