Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion

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Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Sara's center has been pretty easy to find this afternoon, with 
1-minute visible satellite imagery showing the low level center 
beginning to move westward away from the Bay Islands of Honduras and 
more into the Gulf of Honduras. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance 
mission flew through the center this afternoon, indicating little 
change in Sara's intensity with a 1000 mb pressure, peak 850 mb 
flight-level winds of 44 kt, and a dropsonde launched in the 
southwestern side of the circulation also indicating a surface wind 
gust of 37 kt. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this 
advisory, though this could be a little generous based on the 
aircraft observations. 

The tropical storm now appears to be moving a bit faster to the 
west, with the motion estimated at 280/4 kt. Mid-level ridging is 
beginning to develop to the northeast of Sara and should help 
continue to move the system westward to west-northwestward until the 
tropical storm makes landfall in Belize at some point tomorrow 
morning. The NHC track forecast this cycle has been shifted a bit 
southward early on, partially related to initial position updates, 
but still lies near the center of the track guidance envelope.

Intensity-wise, Sara's circulation has been significantly disrupted 
despite remaining just offshore. The broader circulation of the 
tropical storm has been interacting with the mountainous terrain of 
northern Honduras, and I suspect that some of the drying downslope 
flow off this higher terrain is playing some role in why Sara is 
struggling to produce much deep convection near its center 
currently. In fact most of the remaining convection is organized in 
fragmented bands well to the north of the center. Despite the 
relatively favorable environmental conditions, the current structure 
of Sara argues against much intensification before it moves inland 
over Belize in about 18 h, and the latest forecast shows little 
change in strength before landfall. After moving inland, weakening 
should commence and the global and hurricane-regional model guidance 
continue to indicate Sara will open up into a trough as it emerges 
into the Gulf of Mexico. However its remnant moisture will continue 
to propagate northward and likely act as a focal point for enhanced 
precipitation ahead of the next frontal boundary along the northern 
Gulf coast by the middle of this week.

As stressed over the past couple of days, the primary hazard 
associated with Sara remains catastrophic flash flooding, with 
substantial rainfall continuing to occur near the north coast and 
in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides
over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall 
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 16.4N  87.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 16.5N  87.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 17.1N  88.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/0600Z 18.5N  90.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

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