Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 160839
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate that the 
center of Sara is located between the coast of mainland Honduras and 
the Bay Islands.  Compared to 24 h ago, the storm has become less 
organized with a decrease in the convection near the center.  The 
ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 35-40 kt in an area of 
convection to the west and northwest of the center, and based on 
this the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt.

The cyclone remains stationary.  A mid-level ridge should 
strengthen to the north of Sara later today or tonight, which is 
forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move slowly toward the 
west-northwest through Sunday. This motion should bring the center 
over Belize between the 24-36 h points.  After landfall, Sara or 
its remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the 
southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The intensity guidance is in good agreement that not much change in 
strength should occur before Sara makes landfall in Belize.  The 
intensity forecast will show a little strengthening at 24 h when 
the system has the most room over water. The cyclone should weaken 
after landfall, and the dynamical models are in good agreement that 
it should decay to a open trough before reaching the Bay of 
Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico. Based on this guidance, the 
intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 60 h.  The global 
models suggest the possibility that the remnants of Sara could 
interact with a frontal system to form a non-tropical low near the 
northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part of next week.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara 
will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides 
over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western 
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will 
cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides. 

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 16.1N  86.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 16.3N  86.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 16.7N  87.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 17.3N  89.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/0600Z 18.6N  90.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven