Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 152035
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Satellite images depict a large convective band to the northwest of 
the center of Sara, which has been meandering just offshore between 
the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. The current 
intensity is uncertain. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity 
estimates were T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, though there was 
a recent partial scatterometer pass around 1430 UTC that depicted 
winds only around 30-33 kt in the northeastern semicircle. The 
initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which may be 
generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system later this evening which will 
help better determine the structure and intensity of the system.

Sara's forward motion has become sluggish today with a slow westward 
motion, estimated at 270/2 kt. This slow motion is anticipated to 
continue over the next 12 to 24 h. Afterwards, the mid-level ridge 
which has been steering Sara is forecast to shift northeastward, and 
Sara is then expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to 
west-northwestward motion later this weekend. Along the forecast 
track, the center of Sara is forecast to move through the Gulf of 
Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The NHC forecast 
track is near the previous, with a slightly slower forward motion in 
the near term.

The intensity forecast is largely dependent on the land interaction 
with Central America. The model trends and the track forecast keep 
the system's center just offshore through landfall in Belize, thus 
the latest NHC shows some slight strengthening. After landfall, the 
system is forecast to weaken rapidly. The current NHC forecast shows 
the system as a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche, however it is 
possible the system dissipates over the Yucatan peninsula sooner 
than forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous and lies near the consensus aids.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall 
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the 
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of 
Guatemala, the coast of Belize and portions of the coast of Mexico 
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 16.2N  86.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 16.2N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 16.4N  86.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 16.8N  87.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 17.2N  89.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 60H  18/0600Z 18.3N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/1800Z 19.9N  92.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly