Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 150845
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

There hasn’t been much observational data near the center of Sara 
overnight and early this morning aside from the 1-minute GOES-16 
data, which shows a large area of deep convection across northern 
Honduras and over the Gulf of Honduras.  Belize radar has provided 
some information, but the center is still just beyond the range of 
this radar, and there aren't any surface observations near the 
center either.  Finding the center has been challenging overnight.  
Recent GOES-16 imagery shows increased mid-level rotation over water 
about 40 miles north of the advisory position, but there is no 
evidence of any low-level center re-formation at this time.  The 
initial position is based on a combination of the satellite imagery 
and continuity from the previous NHC forecast.  The initial 
intensity estimate remains unchanged from the previous advisory at 
40 kt.

Sara is estimated to be moving westward or 280/8 kt.  A mid-level 
ridge positioned to the NW of Sara over the Gulf of Mexico should 
cause Sara to slow down today.  The mid-level ridge is forecast to 
move slowly eastward toward Florida late in the weekend, allowing 
for Sara to turn west-northwestward by late Saturday across the 
Gulf of Honduras before approaching the coast of Belize early 
Sunday.  The model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the 
track, and the new NHC track forecast is mostly an update of the 
previous prediction and lies close to the various consensus aids.

While environmental and oceanic conditions are favorable for some 
strengthening, Sara's relatively broad structure and proximity to 
land are likely to prevent significant intensification during the 
next 24 hours.  Slight strengthening is then forecast while the 
system is farther offshore before it approaches Belize.  The bulk 
of the model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and 
the NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.  After Sara moves inland over Belize on Sunday, it should 
quickly weaken while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula.  The NHC 
forecast calls for dissipation beyond 72 hours, as in the previous 
forecast.  While most of the global models still indicate that Sara 
is unlikely to survive its trek across the Yucatan Peninsula, some 
leftover low-level vorticity from Sara's remnants should merge with 
an elongated trough or front over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle 
of next week.  Given the strong wind shear and cooler waters, no 
tropical redevelopment is expected over the Gulf of Mexico.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause
potentially catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, 
eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of 
Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and 
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 16.0N  85.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 16.0N  85.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 16.0N  86.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 16.2N  86.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 16.5N  87.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  17/1800Z 17.0N  88.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/0600Z 17.9N  90.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen