Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 150255
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Radar data from Belize shows heavy rainfall from Sara continues to 
spread over portions of Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and 
Honduras tonight. There has been some increase in deep convection 
closer to the center of the storm this evening. A recent Air Force 
Hurricane Hunter flight leg over the northern semicircle found 
925-mb flight-level winds up to 52 kt, which supports an initial 
intensity of 40 kt. The flight-level wind data also indicated that 
the center of Sara is likely just inland or very near the 
northeastern coast of Honduras, and the center was somewhat 
elongated west to east.

Sara is moving westward (270/9 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge
centered over the Gulf of Mexico. A slower westward motion is
expected over the next couple of days, with the center of Sara
forecast to move along or very near the coast of northern Honduras.
As the ridge slides eastward later this weekend, Sarah should turn
toward the west-northwest by late Saturday and move across the Gulf
of Honduras before approaching the coast of Belize on Sunday. The
updated NHC track prediction is nudged slightly south in the short
term, but generally lies between the latest simple and corrected
consensus aids (TVCA/HCCA) with little overall change from the
previous forecast.

While the environmental and oceanic conditions are favorable for 
some intensification, Sara's relatively broad structure and 
proximity to land are likely to inhibit significant strengthening. 
Given the slight southward track adjustment, little intensity change 
is expected in the short term while the storm continues to interact 
with land along the northeastern coast of Honduras. Some further 
strengthening is forecast thereafter once Sara turns 
west-northwestward and moves over water. The updated NHC forecast 
shows a similar peak intensity as the previous prediction, in best 
agreement with the intensity consensus aids. Once again, a more 
northern track than forecast could result in additional 
strengthening. The storm is forecast to move inland over Belize on 
Sunday and quickly weaken while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. 
This forecast shows dissipation by day 4, as the global models agree 
that the low-level circulation of Sara is unlikely to survive its 
trek across the Yucatan Peninsula.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over
northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala,
western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy
rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 15.8N  84.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 12H  15/1200Z 15.9N  85.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  16/0000Z 16.0N  86.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 36H  16/1200Z 16.1N  86.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 16.3N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 16.6N  87.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 17.4N  89.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart