Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 171445
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Sara made landfall this morning at around 1400 UTC along the coast
of Belize, near Dangriga. Before landfall, Sara made a bit of a
convective resurgence near the center, with bursting deep convection
and some GLM lightning flashes occuring. Radar out of Belize City
also showed a modest attempt at banding on the southern side of the
tropical storm. With that said, the surface observations around the
circulation of Sara are unimpressive, with the highest sustained
wind at Calabash Caye near this convection of only 27 kt. A blend of
subjective and objective satellite estimates supported an intensity
of 35 kt at landfall and that remains the value for this advisory.

The tropical storm has been moving west-northwestward up until
landfall, estimated at 290/4 kt. The mid-level ridging that is now
steering the cyclone is pivoting more east, and this should result
in Sara turning more northwestward or north-northwestward as it
moves across the Yucatan, eventually emerging into the Gulf of
Mexico in about 24 hours. However, the system is expected to weaken
over land, ultimately degenerating into a trough of low pressure
before it moves back over water in the Gulf of Mexico. I will note
that track aids extend further north than the current NHC forecast
track into the Gulf of Mexico, mainly because these aids are
tracking the remnant vorticity of the system, even though it will no
longer be a tropical cyclone. As discussed yesterday, the moisture
plume associated with the remnants of Sara could aid in enhanced
rainfall along the U.S. Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida
Panhandle on Tuesday, where WPC currently has a slight risk for
excessive rainfall.

Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from
the country's government indicate reports of more than 40 inches of
rain at some locations. These heavy rains are now spreading westward
across portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula this
morning.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy
rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides as Sara moves further inland.

2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara is winding down
across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding
impacts will continue.

3. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
during the next several hours along portions of the Caribbean coast
of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of
Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 17.1N  88.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  18/0000Z 17.8N  89.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/1200Z 19.5N  91.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin