Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 170233
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Sara remains a poorly organized tropical storm, with the most 
significant banding features in the northern semicircle well away 
from the low-level center.  Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
flight-level and dropsonde data indicate that the central pressure 
has risen to 1001 mb and the winds have decreased.  The initial wind 
speed is set to 35 kt, which are mostly occurring in the rain bands 
well away from the center.

Aircraft fixes indicate the storm is moving slowly to the 
west-northwest.  Sara should slightly accelerate in that direction 
as mid-level ridging strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico through 
tomorrow.  The storm is expected to make landfall on Sunday on the 
coast of Belize, and very little change was made to the NHC forecast 
with guidance consistent from the last cycle.  Little change in 
intensity is expected before landfall due to the disorganized nature 
of Sara, and the new intensity forecast is slightly lower than the 
last one.  The weakened cyclone should dissipate over the southern 
portion of the Yucatan peninsula by early Monday.

The primary hazard associated with Sara continues to be potentially 
catastrophic flash flooding, with substantial rainfall continuing to 
occur near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain 
in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides
over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 16.5N  87.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 16.7N  88.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 17.6N  89.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake