Issued at 500 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 111147 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Raymond Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 500 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 109.4W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 109.4 West. Raymond is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, with this motion then continuing through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Raymond is expected to move over the southern portion of Baja California Sur later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, with Raymond expected to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Raymond can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Las Islas Marias for the next few hours, and in Baja California Sur beginning later this morning. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts of 8 or more inches are expected across Sonora and northern Chihuahua. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Across coastal portions of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, and the central to southern portions of Baja California Sur, rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected. Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into early next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Raymond, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Raymond are affecting the coasts of southwest and west-central Mexico, and southern Baja California Sur. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
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