Issued at 1100 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025
719 WTPZ32 KNHC 110545 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Raymond Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 1100 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025 ...RAYMOND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 108.5W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico * Las Islas Marias * Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 108.5 West. Raymond is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the north Saturday through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Raymond is expected to be near southern Baja California Sur on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight, but the storm is forecast to weaken as it moves near or over Baja California Sur on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Raymond can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions within the warning area in southwestern Mexico are expected to subside soon. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Las Islas Marias through early this morning, and in Baja California Sur beginning later this morning. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts of 8 or more inches are expected across Sonora and northern Chihuahua. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Across coastal portions of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, and the central to southern portions of Baja California Sur, rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected. Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into early next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Raymond, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Raymond are affecting the coast of southwest and west-central Mexico. These swells are expected to spread to the southern Baja California Sur by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
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