Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025
463 WTPZ42 KNHC 110237 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 800 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025 Raymond has generally changed little over the past several hours. Satellite images show that the convective pattern appears ragged and lacks banding features. The low-level center is difficult to see, but it is estimated to be located near the southeastern edge of the cloud mass due to strong southeasterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is in general agreement with the latest satellite intensity estimates. The western edge of Raymond's convection is getting close to the southern portion of Baja California Sur, and heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds are likely to begin there early Saturday. The storm continues to move swiftly northwestward at about 16 kt steered by a strong high pressure area centered over northern Mexico. A trough moving into the western U.S. is expected to erode the ridge, which should result in a turn toward the north this weekend. The center of Raymond is expected to reach the southern portion of Baja California peninsula on Saturday and then move into the Gulf of California late Saturday and Sunday. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Continued strong shear, intrusions of dry air, and land interaction with Baja California should cause Raymond to lose strength during the next day or two. The official forecast shows Raymond moving into mainland Mexico in 36 to 48 hours, but it is possible that Raymond dissipates or degenerates into a remnant low before then. Regardless of how long Raymond survives, heavy rainfall is expected to spread into portions of Mexico and the Southwest U.S. this weekend and early next week. See the Key Messages below for more details. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight, and along portions of Baja California Sur on Saturday. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal sections of southwestern and northwestern Mexico through Sunday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from Raymond will bring the threat of additional heavy rains to portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.2N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 21.8N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 23.9N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/1200Z 26.7N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z 29.3N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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