Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 102032 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 200 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025 Satellite imagery shows that Raymond is producing deep convection that is mainly concentrated over the western semi-circle. A recent scatterometer pass shows winds that were not rain-flagged around 40 kt, which given the undersampling of that instrument and the small size of Raymond supports winds of 45 kt. There continues to be a large range of subjective and objective satellite intensity as well with estimates from 30 to 45 kt. Using a combination of the data, the intensity is set to 45 kt for this advisory. In the next 12 hours, there could be an expansion of the wind radii in the northeast quadrant due to some coastal convergence enhancements. Thus, the Tropical Storm Warning was issued on the intermediate advisory for Las Islas Marias. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/14 kt. A ridge located over northern Mexico will continue to steer the system towards the northwest the rest of today and tonight, with the center paralleling the southwestern coast of Mexico. The system will begin to move more north-northwestward then northward as it rounds the western periphery of the ridge towards Baja California Sur tomorrow into Sunday. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous and remains in good agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus and Google DeepMind solutions. Raymond continues to be impacted by moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear. Given the shear, the system has struggled to become better organized or develop an inner core. The shear is expected to continue over Raymond, with the system entering a drier and more stable airmass in 18-24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is near the latest consensus aids. Global model simulated IR satellite images shows convection waning in about 36h, with models showing the system opening into a trough early next week. The 60h point is showed for continuity, but the system could dissipate earlier than forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight, and along portions of Baja California Sur on Saturday. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal sections of southwestern and northwestern Mexico through Sunday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from Raymond will bring the threat of additional heavy rains to portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.1N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.5N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 22.5N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 24.6N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 27.1N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
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