Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Oct 10 2025
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 100852 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 300 AM CST Fri Oct 10 2025 Raymond is skirting the coast of southwestern Mexico. Geostationary proxy visible satellite imagery shows a partially-exposed circulation with a burst of growing convection near the center. Despite Raymond's disheveled convective appearance, the storm seems to be maintaining a decent surface circulation. Overnight scatterometer data showed the center of Raymond just offshore of southwestern Mexico, with wind vectors up to 48 to 50 kt in the northern semicircle. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. Strong easterly vertical wind shear and proximity to the Mexican coastline should generally limit Raymond's potential to strengthen. Most global and regional models plateau the intensity, and gradually weaken the tropical storm while it moves toward a drier airmass. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward based on the latest intensity increase but still shows gradual weakening through the forecast period. Raymond is still expected to become a remnant low over the Gulf of California on Sunday and dissipate shortly thereafter. The storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt along the southern extent of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The high pressure system should steer Raymond west-northwestward to northwestward during the next day or so. By the weekend, a mid-latitude trough is forecast to move over the western United States, turning the tropical storm northward and bringing it across the Baja California Peninsula. The latest official forecast has shifted slightly to the east, largely due to the eastward shift of the initial position, and now lies near the Google DeepMind forecast aid. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along portions of Baja California Sur on Saturday. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 17.4N 103.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 18.7N 105.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.5N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 22.2N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 24.3N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 26.5N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
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