Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 092041 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 300 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025 Satellite images and a recent partial ASCAT-C scatterometer pass were used to upgrade the depression to Tropical Storm Raymond at the intermediate advisory. Since that time, deep convection continues to burst mainly along the western and southern side of the circulation with cold cloud tops near -80C. Latest subjective and objective estimates range from 30 to 43 kt. Unfortunately, there was a scatterometer gap over the much of the system, and no recent microwave imagery to gain a better idea of the intensity and structure of the system. Using the the previous satellite derived winds and the intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The initial motion is estimated west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt, although this is a little uncertain given the recent formation of the center. A strong mid-level ridge over northern Mexico will steer the system swiftly towards the west-northwest to northwest over the next couple of days, with the center paralleling the southwestern coast of Mexico. The system will begin to move more north-northwestward then northward as it rounds the western periphery of the ridge towards the Baja California peninsula. The NHC track is near the previous forecast, which lies near the consensus aids. Strong easterly shear is expected to displace most of the convection over the western semicircle over the next few days, although the system will remain over very warm sea surface temperatures near 29-30C and within a preferable upper-level wind environment. Thus, some strengthening is forecast in the short term. In about a day or so, drier air and a more stable environment will cause the system to start weakening as it approaches Baja California. Global model simulated IR imagery shows the system struggling to produce organized convection by day 3, with the system becoming post-tropical, and ultimately dissipating by day 4. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through late Friday. Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of the system. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 16.5N 101.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 17.3N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.9N 106.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 20.6N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 22.5N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 24.8N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 26.8N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
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