Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 052041
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was 
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 79.6 West. Rafael is 
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A general 
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next two to three 
days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near or 
over the Cayman Islands this evening and tonight, be near or over 
western Cuba on Wednesday, and move into the southeastern Gulf of 
Mexico by Wednesday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph 
(110 km/h) with higher gusts.  Steady to rapid intensification is 
expected during the next 24 hour or so, and Rafael is expected to 
become a hurricane during the next several hours as it passes near 
the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes 
landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft data is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical 
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header 
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by 
this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of 
Youth on Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts 
of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on 
Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Tropical Storm conditions are 
possible farther east in central Cuba on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals
between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up
to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could
lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet 
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and 
could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal 
tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of 
Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and 
far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven