Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 051449
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF
WESTERN JAMAICA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 78.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for
the Dry Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern 
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 78.6 West.  Rafael is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A generally
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days.  On the
forecast track, the storm is expected to move near western Jamaica 
through early this afternoon, and be near or over the Cayman 
Islands this evening and tonight, and be near or over western Cuba 
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid intensification is expected during the next 24 to 
36 hours, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane as it passes 
near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes 
landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by 
this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of 
Youth on Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in 
Jamaica through early this afternoon and are expected in parts of 
west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday 
and Wednesday night.  Tropical Storm conditions are possible farther 
east in central Cuba on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean 
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman 
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals 
between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up 
to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could 
lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and 
Middle Florida Keys. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight.
Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal
tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane
Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and
southwesternmost Florida mainland.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven