Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 050259
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...RECON FINDS RAFAEL STEADY STATE AS IT NEARS JAMAICA...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA AND ISLE OF YOUTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 77.2W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has upgraded all the provinces previously 
under a Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning. The government of 
Cuba has also upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm 
Warning for the provinces of Cienfuegos, Villa Clara, Sancti 
Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,
Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36 
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of 
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside 
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life 
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through 
Tuesday morning for Jamaica, and within 36 h for portions of Cuba. 

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba should closely monitor this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was 
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 77.2 West. Rafael is 
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A 
northwestward turn with a little more acceleration is anticipated 
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected 
to be near Jamaica on Tuesday morning, be near or over the Cayman 
Islands Tuesday night, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 
to 36 h, and Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the 
northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further 
strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from dropsonde data from the 
Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
Tuesday afternoon and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle
of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica tonight into Tuesday morning and are expected in parts of 
west-central Cuba, possible farther east in central Cuba, and in 
the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of
Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with
locally up to 9 inches are expected.  Flooding and mudslides could
occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States by mid to late week. Rainfall totals of 
1 to 3 inches are expected for the lower and middle Florida Keys. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight. 
Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal 
tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water 
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas 
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane 
Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

SURF:  Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Papin