Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 091443
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Rafael is a sheared tropical storm. High-resolution AMSR2 passive
microwave images received after the previous advisory showed the
northeastward tilt of the vortex with height. Recent data from the
Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm the surface center lies on the
southwestern edge of the deep convective mass over the central Gulf
of Mexico. The strongest winds are likely confined to the northeast
quadrant of the storm underneath this sheared convection. Dropsonde
data indicate the central pressure has risen to around 999 mb, and
the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on flight-level
winds from the aircraft.

The storm is likely to continue weakening due to unfavorable
environmental conditions. Moderate westerly shear (15-20 kt) through
Sunday and mid-level relative humidities falling below 40 percent
should make it difficult for Rafael to become better organized and
sustain deep convection going forward. Steady weakening is shown in
the NHC intensity forecast through Sunday, and Rafael is now
predicted to become a post-tropical remnant low in 48 h.

Rafael is moving west-northwestward (290/5 kt), but the storm is
expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico
within weakening steering currents during the next 24-36 h. As
Rafael becomes weak and shallow, the track guidance agrees on a turn
toward the south and south-southwest within the low-level flow
through the middle of next week. Only minor adjustments were made to
the NHC track forecast, which lies near the center of the guidance
envelope in good agreement with the TVCA simple consensus.

Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are
still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the
northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant
moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy
rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions
of the Upper Texas Coast into Southwest and Central Louisiana
through Sunday morning.

Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 25.2N  91.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 25.4N  91.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 25.6N  92.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 25.7N  92.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 25.1N  91.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0000Z 23.6N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1200Z 22.4N  93.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1200Z 20.5N  94.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z 18.5N  96.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart