Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 090843
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
300 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Latest satellite images show Rafael has continued to burst deep 
convection throughout the early morning hours, although shear has 
impacted the symmetry of the convective canopy. The convection is 
displaced to the northwest of the low-level center, as aircraft 
reconnaissance reported earlier, and was further confirmed by a 
scatterometer pass around 0230 UTC. There have been no microwave 
passes tonight to assist with the storm structure. Satellite 
intensity estimates continue to run higher than the flight level 
winds from the earlier aircraft data, as they struggle to keep up 
with the rapid weakening. Given shear has continued to disrupt the 
circulation, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this 
advisory, which is near the latest UW-CIMSS satellite consensus. An 
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
system in a few hours which will help better assess the storm 
structure and intensity.

Rafael remains over the warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico, 
with vertical wind shear and drier air impacting the storms 
structure.  While the shear may decrease some after 36 h, relative 
humidities will drop below 40 percent around the same time which 
will lead to steady weakening.  Given the unfavorable atmospheric 
conditions the latest NHC intensity forecast continues to show 
steady weakening and follows the latest global model fields showing 
Rafael becoming a depression by 48 h and degenerating to a remnant 
low pressure area soon after that, although this could occur sooner 
than is currently forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwest or 285/5 kt.  A 
ridge to the north of the storm should continue to steer it slowly 
west-northwestward for the next 24-36 h.  After that, the track 
guidance continues to come into agreement with the system meandering 
and eventually moving south to southwestward within the low-level 
wind flow as the system weakens.  The latest NHC forecast was 
shifted slightly towards the latest simple and corrected-consensus 
aids. 

Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 25.0N  90.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 25.1N  91.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 25.4N  92.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 25.3N  92.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 24.7N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 23.9N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z 23.1N  92.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0600Z 21.0N  93.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0600Z 19.6N  94.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly