Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 100232
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Rafael remains sheared this evening, with the remaining convection 
located to the northeast of the exposed low-level center. The 
circulation center itself is broad and appears to have multiple 
small vorticity center embedded in it. The initial intensity is 
decreased to 40 kt based on a blend of the various subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates. These winds are likely 
occurring in the area of convection northeast of the center and 
northwest of buoy 42001. 

The initial motion is now a slow 325/3. during the next 36 h or so, 
Rafael should make a small clockwise loop over the central Gulf of 
Mexico.  After that time, the low-level flow should steer the 
cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward.  One change in 
the track guidance is that that the GFS and HWRF models turn the 
system move westward after 60 h and wind up to the north of the rest 
of the guidance.  Overall, the new forecast track is little changed 
from the previous track and lies near the consensus models.

Rafael should continue to weaken due to a combination of 
southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment.  Simulated satellite 
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF continue to indicate that the 
associated convection will dissipate between 24-36 h, with the 
circulation becoming elongated.  Based on this, the intensity 
forecast calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low 
pressure area by 36 h, with final dissipation by 120 h as suggested 
by most of the global models. The new intensity forecast has only 
minor tweaks from the previous forecast.

Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are
still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the
northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant
moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy
rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions
of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning.

Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 25.7N  91.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 26.0N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 26.0N  91.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 25.3N  91.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0000Z 24.0N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1200Z 22.8N  92.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z 22.2N  93.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0000Z 21.4N  95.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven