Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT23 KNHC 090842
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
0900 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  90.8W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE  90SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  90.8W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N  90.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.1N  91.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.4N  92.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.3N  92.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.7N  92.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.9N  92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.1N  92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 21.0N  93.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 19.6N  94.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N  90.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY