Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Advisory

166 
WTNT23 KNHC 042053
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  76.7W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  76.7W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  76.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N  77.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N  79.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.2N  80.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.1N  82.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N  83.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N  85.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.0N  87.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.4N  89.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE   0SW  80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N  76.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY