Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100838 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Priscilla remains a resilient tropical cyclone early this morning despite moving over cool waters near 24C. Since the previous advisory, the satellite presentation has degraded somewhat, likely due to about 20 kt of south-southwesterly shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS, with the low-level center now positioned on the south side of the deep convection. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 2.5/35 kt and 3.5/55 kt, respectively, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 35 to 54 kt. A recent scatterometer pass indicated a broad area of 40-kt winds, with a peak wind vector of 41 kt. These data support maintaining the initial intensity at 45 kt for this advisory. Priscilla is now moving northward, or 350 degrees at 5 kt. This general motion is expected to continue today as the cyclone is steered between a longwave trough to its northwest and a mid- to upper-level ridge over Texas and northern Mexico. A turn toward the northeast is forecast beyond 24 hours as the increasingly shallow system becomes steered by the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is a blend of the multi-model consensus aids and the previous track prediction. Moderate to strong southwesterly shear of 20 to 30 kt, along with continued passage over cool waters and a dry mid-level environment, should induce steady weakening of Priscilla during the next day or so. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models shows Priscilla losing deep convection within about 12 hours, with both models indicating that the system will open into a trough by 36 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for Priscilla to become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours, with dissipation expected by 36 hours. Remnant moisture associated with Priscilla remains the primary hazard across portions of southwestern United States. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely into the weekend over parts of central Arizona and southwest Utah, with scattered areas of flash flooding possible across the remainder of Arizona, southern Utah, southwestern Colorado, and far northwestern New Mexico. Please monitor forecasts and updates from local National Weather Service offices in the southwest U.S. at weather.gov and from the Weather Prediction Center at wpc.ncep.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 25.5N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 26.0N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 26.5N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
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