Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Oct 09 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 092044 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 200 PM MST Thu Oct 09 2025 Deep convection associated with Priscilla has made a slight comeback over the past few hours, with cloud tops to -60C in a few clusters over the southern semicircle of the circulation. Data from a scatterometer overpass from a few hours ago showed highest winds near 40 kt over the southwestern quadrant of the system. The advisory intensity is held at 40 kt based on the scatterometer data and the slight resurgence in convection. This is also close to the mean of objective and subjective satellite-based intensity estimates. The storm continues on a generally north-northwestward track at an estimated motion of 330/7 kt. As the cyclone gradually spins down and becomes a shallow vortex, a turn toward the north and eventually north-northeast within the low-level flow is anticipated. The storm is expected to slow down and dissipate just offshore the west coast of Baja California. Priscilla is moving over SSTs of around 24 deg C and will likely traverse a little cooler waters to the west of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday. This, combined with a rather dry low- to mid-level air mass, should lead to the system weakening into a remnant low before reaching the Baja California peninsula. The official intensity forecast is on the high end of the model guidance suite. Remnant moisture associated with Priscilla remains the primary hazard associated with the system across portions of Southwestern United States. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is likely into the weekend over portions of central Arizona, with scattered areas of flash flooding expected across the remainder of Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, and far northwest New Mexico. Please follow forecast updates from local National Weather Service forecast offices in the southwest U.S. at weather.gov and the Weather Prediction Center at wpc.ncep.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 25.2N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 26.2N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0600Z 26.9N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 27.5N 114.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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