000 WTPZ31 KNHC 110231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...PAMELA STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 106.8W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southern Baja California del Sur, Sinaloa, Durango and Nayarit should monitor the progress of Pamela. Watches could be issued for a portion of those states on Monday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 106.8 West. Pamela is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Monday. A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur late Monday into Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night and increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Pamela is forecast to be a hurricane by late tomorrow, and could be a major hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake