Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 110232
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Satellite images indicate that Pamela is continuing to strengthen.  
The low-level center is on the northern edge of a growing area of 
deep convection, although there is still a fair bit of northerly 
shear as indicated by the V-shape to the cloud tops on infrared 
satellite imagery.  Intensity estimates are rising, so the wind 
speed is set to 45 kt, closest to the latest TAFB classification.  

The current moderate shear is forecast to relax some tomorrow as 
Pamela moves closer to the center of an upper-level high.  Combined 
with the very warm waters in the path of the storm, this should set 
the stage for continued strengthening.  Rapid intensification is 
also possible in a day or so when Pamela is in a shear minimum and 
likely has a better-developed inner core. The intensity forecast is 
raised from the previous one, although it remains below the 
corrected- consensus guidance.  This could be a conservative 
forecast if the favorable environment shown by the GFS model 
materializes.  

Pamela has slowed some tonight, now 295/10 kt.  The steering 
pattern seems well defined for the next day or so with a ridge 
controlling the storm's motion in a west-northwest to northwest 
direction.  A broad mid-latitude trough causes the ridge to erode in 
a couple of days, forcing the cyclone to turn northward and 
northeastward by late Tuesday and move faster.  The most significant 
guidance change is that more of the models are showing a quicker 
progression toward the coast of west-central Mexico.  This makes 
meteorological sense as well, with a more powerful hurricane likely 
feeling the stronger upper-level southwesterly winds.  The new 
forecast is adjusted toward the northeast beyond 24 hours, near or 
just behind the model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Pamela is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the 
coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, and it could 
bring life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous 
winds to a portion of that area.  Residents in this area should 
monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their 
hurricane plan in place. 

2. Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night or
early Wednesday, and could bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to
the extreme southern portion of the peninsula. Watches could be
required for portions of this area early Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 15.9N 106.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 16.5N 108.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 17.6N 109.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 19.0N 109.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 20.7N 109.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  13/1200Z 22.8N 108.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 25.5N 106.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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