755 WTPZ42 KNHC 050844 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022 The satellite presentation of Paine has degraded during the past several hours. Apart from one small burst of convection being sheared away from the center, the cyclone is generally just a low-level circulation. Satellite intensity estimates have fallen and the initial intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt. Global models indicate that moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear and increasingly dry mid-level air will prevent Paine from intensifying in the future. Simulated satellite imagery from these models also suggests that little or no new deep, organized convection is likely to form. The official forecast now shows Paine becoming a remnant low within 12 hours. Paine is passing just east of Clarion Island while moving northwest at about 4 kt. This motion is expected to gradually turn to the west-northwest and west today as the shallow vortex is steered by the low-level winds. The NHC track prediction is shifted slightly south of the previous forecast track and near the center of the model guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 18.3N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 18.6N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z 18.8N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 19.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci