000 WTPZ42 KNHC 041445 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022 Deep convection continues to burst around the western portion of Paine's circulation. Infrared and early-light visible satellite imagery suggests that there has been some increase in convective banding, and that the center is slightly more embedded within the colder cloud tops. Despite the slight increase in organization, subjective and objective Dvorak classifications have not changed much and still support an initial intensity of 35 kt. Hopefully scatterometer data will provide additional information on the size and intensity of Paine this afternoon. Paine still has a very brief window of opportunity in which to intensify. The deep-layer shear is forecast to remain low today, but is expected to increase significantly tonight and Wednesday. Therefore, some slight strengthening is predicted, followed by gradual weakening due to the unfavorable upper-level environment and an increasing dry mid-level air mass. Paine is expected to become a remnant low in about 48 hours, and dissipate around day 3. The cyclone is moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. Paine should continue northwestward for the 24-36 hours around the western side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a bend to the west-northwest and west is predicted as Paine becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the simple consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.5N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 18.1N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 18.6N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 18.9N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 19.2N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 19.4N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 19.4N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown