Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT41 KNHC 221455
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162024
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Oscar has had 
difficulty locating a center this morning.  Data from the plane and 
visible satellite images suggest that the circulation is becoming 
elongated.  Also, the system may have weakened below tropical storm 
strength, but we will wait for an upcoming scatterometer pass that 
will provide a wider swath of wind data before downgrading it.  
Thus, for the moment, the intensity is being maintained at 35 kt.  
Nonetheless, since all of the stronger winds are occurring east of 
the center, the Tropical Storm Warning for the Central Bahamas is 
being discontinued.

Given the poor definition of the center, the initial motion is an 
uncertain 040/10 kt.  Oscar should accelerate northeastward along 
the eastern side of a mid- to upper-level trough during the next day 
or so.  The official track forecast is a little faster than the 
previous NHC prediction in 24-36 hours.  Within the next couple of 
days, the global models indicate that the trough will cause 
baroclinic cyclogenesis to occur near or north of Oscar.  The 
resulting extratropical surface low is likely to absorb or merge 
with the tropical cyclone or its remnants.

The atmospheric environment, consisting of strong shear and 
relatively dry air, is expected to remain hostile for the 
maintenance of a tropical cyclone, so no strengthening is 
anticipated.  Indeed, it is possible that Oscar could dissipate 
before it interacts with the new extratropical cyclone.

Key Messages:

1. Localized flash flooding will be possible today across the 
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.  With 
rainfall easing across Cuba, flooding from rainfall which has 
already occurred could remain a concern for the next several days.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the 
southeastern Bahamas today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 22.9N  74.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 24.7N  72.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 27.8N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  24/0000Z 31.5N  68.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch