ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...TINY ORLENE HEADING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS AND A PORTION OF MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 107.2W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to San Blas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas tonight or Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 107.2 West. Orlene is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by tonight along with a slight increase in forward speed. Orlene is then forecast to move toward the north or north-northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected through Saturday night, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Orlene remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible Saturday night and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico Saturday night and Sunday. RAINFALL: Into Monday afternoon, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, for portions of the southwest Mexican coast. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of mountainous terrain. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in the watch areas in regions of onshore winds. SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN