990 WTPZ41 KNHC 010311 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Orlene had another burst of deep convection in the past few hours. Earlier microwave imagery from SSMI/S still showed a small inner core with a curved band to the south. Subjective and objective satellite Dvorak classifications continue to range between 45 to 65 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 55 kt to represent a blend of these estimates. The storm is embedded in an environment conducive for further intensification. Global models suggest the vertical wind shear is low and the surrounding mid-level humidities are relatively moist and should remain this way for the next day or so. These conditions, combined with warm sea surface temperatures, create the potential for steady to rapid intensification. In fact, statistical guidance indicates there is a higher than average probability of rapid intensification in the upcoming 24 hours. The official forecast still shows Orlene steadily strengthening to peak near 85 kt in 36 hours and little changes have been made since the previous advisory. Beyond this period, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase and induce weakening until landfall. It should be noted that the NHC intensity forecast is on the high end of the guidance to account for the possibility of rapid intensification. The cyclone is moving along the periphery of a ridge over central Mexico. In the next day, Orlene is expected to turn north-northeastward in the flow between the ridge and an upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja California peninsula and continue this trajectory until landfall. The latest NHC track prediction is slightly east of the previous track forecast and a little faster than the consensus model aids. This forecast favors the GFS track solution over the ECMWF. Based on the the forecast track and wind radii, the Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for portions of mainland Mexico. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required in the coming day. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Islas Marias on Sunday, where a hurricane watch has been issued. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area from Playa Perula to San Blas within the next 36 h. Tropical storm conditions are possible over other portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico in the tropical storm watch area. 2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of mountainous terrain of Southwest Mexico into Monday afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 17.0N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 17.6N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 18.6N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 19.8N 106.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 21.1N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 22.4N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 23.6N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/0000Z 25.5N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci