000 WTPZ41 KNHC 302032 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Orlene has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with the central convection becoming a little more concentrated. Satellite intensity estimates are now in the 45-65 kt range, and based on these the initial intensity is nudged upward to 55 kt. Although the organization has increased, the cyclone still looks a bit ragged, perhaps because the current easterly shear is a little stronger than the analyzed 5-10 kt. As noted in the last advisory, Orlene is forecast to be in a moist, low-shear environment and over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 24-36 h. These conducive conditions, combined with the small storm size, should allow steady to rapid strengthening as the core convection becomes more symmetric and concentrated. Indeed, the rapid intensification indices of the SHIPS model show around a 50 percent chance of 25-30 kt of strengthening during the next 24. Based this and other guidance, the new intensity forecast calls for Orlene to reach a peak intensity of 85 kt in 36 h. After that, the global models remain in excellent agreement that the cyclone should encounter strong southwesterly shear that should result in quick weakening. The official forecast during the weakening phase, including the 60-kt landfall intensity, is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, there is still a chance that Orlene could be a hurricane at landfall if the shear is lighter than expected or the storm moves faster than currently forecast. The initial motion is now north-northwestward or 335/4 kt. Orlene is on the southwest side of a mid- to upper-level ridge over central Mexico, and water vapor imagery shows a developing mid- to upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja California peninsula. Orlene should turn northward and north- northeastward between these features during the next day or so, with this general motion continuing for the rest of the forecast period. The new forecast track, which again is similar to the previous forecast, calls for the system to pass west of Cabo Corrientes and near the Islas Marias in about 48 h and then make landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico near 96 h. This forecast is close to the consensus models, but is still slower than the GFS model. As seen earlier, some of the ensemble guidance still forecasts the possibility that Orlene will get so strongly sheared that the northward motion will slow over the southern Gulf of California and keep the center offshore through 120 h. The forecast track and wind radii require a Hurricane Watch for Las Islas Marias and a Tropical Storm Watch for a potion of mainland Mexico at this time. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or on Saturday. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Islas Marias on Sunday, where a hurricane watch has been issued. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico in the tropical storm watch area. 2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of mountainous terrain of Southwest Mexico into Monday afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 16.6N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 17.2N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 18.0N 107.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 19.1N 107.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 20.6N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 21.9N 106.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 23.0N 106.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 25.5N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven