000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300834 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Orlene continues to gain strength. An earlier microwave overpass revealed a well-defined curved band wrapping into a developing inner core. Persistent deep convection is over the estimated low-level center location, with cloud tops near -80 degrees Celsius. The UW-CIMSS ADT objective Dvorak estimate as well as the Data-T number from SAB have increased from the previous advisory, and therefore the initial intensity has been nudged up to 50 kt. The storm has turned northwestward and is heading 320/4 kt as it begins to slowly round the western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. A turn to the north should occur by tonight followed by a turn to the north-northeast along with a slight increase in forward speed, as Orlene rounds the ridge and gets caught in the flow between the ridge and an upper trough to its west. The consensus track guidance has shifted slightly eastward this cycle, partially due to the ECMWF track coming into better agreement with the rest of the global models. The NHC track forecast was also adjusted a little to the right, but remains just west of the consensus. Based on the trends in the track forecast, there is an increasing probability that Orlene may affect the coast of the Mexican state of Jalisco as it passes just to the west of that location in 2-3 days. Therefore, watches may be required for a portion of that coastline later this morning. Orlene is within an environment favorable for strengthening, with plenty of atmospheric moisture, low vertical wind shear, and water temperatures of 29 degrees C. The cyclone's forecast path should keep it within these conditions for the next 36-48 h. With there now being evidence of an inner core, Orlene's rate of strengthening should increase soon. After 48 h, strong southwesterly shear is forecast to begin impacting the cyclone and should entrain dry mid-tropospheric air into its circulation. This should cause Orlene to weaken before it reaches the coast of Mexico early next week. Based on the small size of the cyclone, fairly rapid changes in its intensity are possible, both while strengthening and weakening. The NHC forecast is a little higher that the previous one and is very near the various multi-model consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 15.9N 106.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 16.6N 107.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 17.4N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 18.2N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 19.3N 107.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 21.8N 106.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 23.8N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto