Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 03 2025
927 WTPZ45 KNHC 032035 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 03 2025 While Octave's overall appearance has remained steady since this morning, its center appears to be just embedded enough within the central dense overcast produced by its convection for recent subjective Dvorak estimates to come up to T3.5 or 55 kt. Objective intensity estimates are still a little lower, so the intensity has been nudged up slightly to 50 kt for this advisory. There was no useful ASCAT data available for this afternoon's analysis, but earlier SAR data also generally supported an intensity near 50 kt with wind radii similar to what NHC previously analyzed. No changes of note were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, but both aspects of the forecast remain highly uncertain, especially beyond the next 24 hours. Octave should still continue west-northwestward for another day or so, before it slows down and turns northward. Next week Octave will likely begin moving slowly eastward, but exactly how fast and how far north it moves before will depend on how much Octave interacts with a trough well to its north and a large disturbance developing to its east. The NHC track forecast is still near the middle of the multi-model and single-model ensemble envelopes but confidence in the forecast has not increased, especially beyond 72 hours. Similarly, Octave's intensity will probably change little for the next 12 to 24 hours. After that, it will have a brief period of a day or so where the shear is expected to lessen and the cyclone could intensity further. The Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean continues to be an outlier in showing Octave reaching hurricane strength, but the ensemble shows that there is a wide range of possibilities from a near steady-state tropical storm to a strong hurricane. The official forecast is still on the high end of the other intensity guidance, but is lower than the GDM mean. By the end of the forecast period, Octave will likely weaken as it interacts with the much larger disturbance currently located to its east. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.7N 121.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 14.7N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 15.2N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 15.6N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 15.7N 123.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 15.7N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 15.0N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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