Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 02 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 022039 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 02 2025 Octave continues to be disrupted by strong easterly vertical wind shear. There is a rather sharp edge of the cloud shield on the eastern side of the upper-level cloud pattern and the low-level center remains near this eastern edge. Convective banding features are not very well defined and the upper-tropospheric outflow continues to be inhibited to the east of the system. The advisory intensity has been adjusted to 50 kt based on a recent ASCAT overpass and the 34-kt wind radii have also been adjusted slightly based on the scatterometer data. Center fixes indicate that the motion remains west-northwestward, or 285/7 kt. The tropical cyclone continues to move along the southern side of a weak mid-level subtropical ridge, and should continue to do so for the next couple of days. By 72 hours or so, Octave should turn northward and slow down as it encounters a weakness in the ridge. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to turn eastward as it begins to become drawn into a larger developing tropical cyclone off the southwest coast of Mexico. The official forecast track is similar to the previous one also similar to the multi-model consensus prediction. Dynamical models indicate that the vertical wind shear over Octave is not expected to decrease significantly for the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the shear is likely to lessen although the air mass is expected to become somewhat drier by that time and the developing tropical cyclone to the east of Octave could also have a negative influence. The official forecast calls for some re-strengthening around day 3, however it is above most of the model guidance. This should be considered a low-confidence forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 12.7N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 13.0N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 13.5N 121.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 14.0N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 14.6N 123.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 15.0N 123.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 15.3N 123.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 15.5N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 15.7N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Source link