Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280854 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025 Satellite imagery indicates that Narda’s convection has continued to diminish in coverage. The remaining deep convection is confined mainly to the southern semicircle, with cloud tops warming to near –65 C. A 0439 UTC METOP-B ASCAT pass showed peak surface winds of about 45 kt in the southeastern quadrant. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 47 to 57 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt. The cyclone is moving northward at about 360/4 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through the remainder of the weekend. As Narda steadily loses convection and becomes increasingly shallow, it should turn back toward the northwest within the low-level flow before dissipating around midweek. The forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Narda has rapidly weakened over the past 24 hours due to cooler sea surface temperatures and the influence of a drier, more stable air mass. Additional steady weakening is forecast, and the system is expected to become post-tropical by Monday and dissipate by the middle of next week. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 19.1N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 19.9N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 20.9N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 29/1800Z 21.4N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 21.7N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1800Z 22.1N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z 22.6N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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