Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025
778 WTPZ44 KNHC 280234 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025 Narda has weakened this evening as it tracks over progressively cooler waters and into a drier environment. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were T4.0/65 kt, with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS in the 54–64 kt range. Given the weakening trend shown on satellite since these estimates, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt, and Narda is now a tropical storm. The initial motion is north-northwestward at about 335/4 kt. A gradual turn toward the north is forecast tonight, with this motion expected to persist through the remainder of the weekend as it responds to a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Early next week, Narda should become shallow and increasingly steered by the low-level flow, leading to a turn back toward the northwest before dissipation. The forecast track is very close to the previous advisory and remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. Continued weakening is expected as Narda moves farther north into progressively cooler waters and a drier, more stable environment. The system is forecast to become post-tropical within 36 hours and dissipate around day 5. The intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 18.7N 125.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 19.4N 126.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 20.4N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 21.1N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 30/0000Z 21.6N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 30/1200Z 22.1N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 22.8N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z 24.0N 126.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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