Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT45 KNHC 191457
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Nadine is very close to making landfall in Belize, near Belize City. 
The center is currently moving across the country's barrier islands 
of Turneffe Atoll and landfall on the mainland will likely occur 
within the next hour.  The sprawling tropical storm continues to 
slowly intensify, and a combination of objective and subjective 
satellite intensity estimates support increasing the maximum winds 
to 45 kt.  Furthermore, radar data indicate that the structure of 
Nadine has improved and there are curved bands surrounding the 
center.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently in the 
northern portion of the storm, and they will likely reach the center 
soon.  A Tropical Cyclone Update will be provided when the storm 
makes landfall.

The storm is moving due westward at 7 kt, and the system is expected 
to continue accelerating in that direction during the next day or 
so.  This motion should take Nadine across Belize, northern 
Guatemala, and southern Mexico later today through Sunday.

Nadine is expected to weaken after the core moves inland, and it
will likely dissipate over southern Mexico by late Sunday.  The
remnants have a high chance of reforming in the eastern Pacific
basin during the early to middle part of next week.


Key Messages:

1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track
of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern
Belize.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the
warning area through this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 17.3N  87.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 17.3N  89.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  20/1200Z 16.8N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Torres-Vazquez