000 WTPZ34 KNHC 182343 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Madeline Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 600 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 ...MADELINE PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 107.6W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case during the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 107.6 West. Madeline is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward the west Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Madeline will gradually move away from the coast of Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours. Weakening is expected to begin by Monday night, and Madeline is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Madeline can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml. RAINFALL: Outer bands from Madeline are forecast to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local maximum totals of 6 inches into Monday across mainly coastal portions of the following Mexican States: Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit. These heavy rains may produce localized flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area through this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico for the next couple of days, and will spread northward to the southern Baja California peninsula coast and the coast of west-central Mexico tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto