860 WTPZ44 KNHC 192032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022 The expected weakening trend of Madeline appears to have begun. Although convection remains quite deep on the system's west side, it is becoming increasingly detached from the low-level center due to about 20 kt of east-northeasterly vertical wind shear. There is a wide range in the current Dvorak estimates, but since the storm appears a little less organized, the initial intensity is nudged down to 50 kt. This also agrees with a partial ASCAT pass that showed 40-45 kt winds on Madeline's southeast side. The center is currently a little more than 100 n mi south of Cabo San Lucas, and there have been wind gusts to tropical storm force reported there during the past couple of hours. Madeline is gradually turning to the left, with the initial motion now estimated to be 295/9 kt. A continued west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so while the storm remains steered by a deep-layer ridge centered over southern Texas. After that time, a turn to the west is expected when the system becomes shallow and moves within the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is a little to the south and slightly faster than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus models. Since east-northeasterly shear is expected to persist while Madeline moves into a region of drier air and over cooler SSTs, steady weakening is expected. Madeline is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours when it predicted to be over 24 to 25 degree C waters. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise unchanged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 20.9N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 21.6N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 21.9N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 21/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0600Z 21.9N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1800Z 21.7N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z 21.6N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z 21.5N 123.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bann