Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Madeline Forecast Discussion


860 
WTPZ44 KNHC 192032
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022

The expected weakening trend of Madeline appears to have begun.
Although convection remains quite deep on the system's west side,
it is becoming increasingly detached from the low-level center due
to about 20 kt of east-northeasterly vertical wind shear.  There is
a wide range in the current Dvorak estimates, but since the storm
appears a little less organized, the initial intensity is nudged
down to 50 kt.  This also agrees with a partial ASCAT pass that
showed 40-45 kt winds on Madeline's southeast side.  The center
is currently a little more than 100 n mi south of Cabo San Lucas, 
and there have been wind gusts to tropical storm force reported 
there during the past couple of hours.

Madeline is gradually turning to the left, with the initial motion
now estimated to be 295/9 kt.  A continued west-northwestward
motion is expected during the next day or so while the storm
remains steered by a deep-layer ridge centered over southern Texas.
After that time, a turn to the west is expected when the system
becomes shallow and moves within the low-level trade winds.  The
NHC track forecast is a little to the south and slightly faster
than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus models.

Since east-northeasterly shear is expected to persist while
Madeline moves into a region of drier air and over cooler SSTs, 
steady weakening is expected.  Madeline is forecast to become a 
post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours when it predicted to be  
over 24 to 25 degree C waters.  The NHC intensity forecast is a 
little lower than the previous one in the short term, but is 
otherwise unchanged.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 20.9N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 21.2N 110.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 21.6N 112.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 21.9N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  21/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/0600Z 21.9N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1800Z 21.7N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z 21.6N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z 21.5N 123.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bann




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