000 WTPZ44 KNHC 191501 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Madeline's satellite presentation has improved some this morning. Although the east-northeasterly shear continues to impede deep convective development in the northeast quadrant. A new burst of convection with cold cloud tops of -80C have developed just to the southeast of the surface center. An earlier AMSR-2 microwave pass also showed improved curved banding in the western semicircle. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, respectively, along with an earlier SATCON analysis supports a slight increase to 55 kt for this advisory. Increasing deep-layer shear and decreasing oceanic surface temperatures ahead of Madeline's track should induce a weakening trend later tonight. The global model simulated IR imagery shows that the cyclone should shed its deep convection by early Wednesday and degenerate into a remnant low-pressure system. The official intensity forecast is similar to last night's advisory and continues to side with the IVCN consensus model. Madeline's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/7 kt. A subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico is expected to build over the Baja California peninsula and to the north of Madeline by tonight. In response to this change in the synoptic steering pattern, the cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest by tonight and slowly turn westward on Wednesday. Madeline should continue in this heading as a remnant low through the remainder of the period. The NHC track forecast has been nudged a little to the south of the previous one within 36 hours to coincide with the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 20.6N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.0N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 21.4N 111.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 21.7N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.9N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0000Z 21.9N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 21.9N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 21.9N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z 21.8N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts