000 WTPZ32 KNHC 030530 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 1100 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...LORENA STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 110.0W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 110.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A generally slow northward motion is expected to begin by late Thursday and continue into late Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday and then could approach the coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is likely to become a hurricane during the next several hours. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and Lorena could be back to tropical storm status by early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja California Sur by Wednesday and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur through Friday. Significant flash flooding is a possibility. Within the moisture surge ahead of Lorena, 1 to 2 inches of rain, with localized totals to 4 inches, are expected from the northwest Mexico states of Colima to Sinaloa northward into Arizona through Friday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Wednesday and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur beginning tonight and continuing through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Source link