Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Lester Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 170237
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132022
1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Convection associated with Lester has become more concentrated to 
the southwest of the center in a sheared convective burst.  
However, this has not yet resulted in significant strengthening, as 
the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates 
remain near 35 kt.  Thus, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The storm continues to move northwestward or 315/10 kt.  The 
cyclone should continue to move in this general direction as it is 
steered in the southeasterly flow between a cyclonic gyre to its 
west and a mid-level ridge ridge over Texas and northern Mexico. On 
the forecast track, the center of Lester should cross the coast of 
Mexico Saturday afternoon or evening, then continue to move inland 
until the system dissipates. The new official forecast track is 
little changed from the previous track.

Lester is being affected by about 20 kt of northeasterly vertical 
wind shear, and moderate shear should continue until landfall.  
However, the combination of very warm sea surface temperatures and 
a moist environment should allow some strengthening, and the 
intensity forecast shows a peak intensity of 45 kt near landfall.  
After landfall, Lester should rapidly weaken over the mountains of 
Mexico, and the system is expected to dissipate between 36-48 h.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Lester will reach portions of coastal southern 
Mexico during the next few hours, increasing in coverage and 
intensity Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on 
Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along 
with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. 

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread along the coast 
of southern Mexico tonight and Saturday within the Tropical Storm
Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 14.8N  97.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 15.9N  99.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 17.4N 100.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1200Z 19.1N 102.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



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