000 WTPZ43 KNHC 161436 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 Lester remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center occasionally becoming exposed to the east of the deep convection. The overall appearance of the storm has changed little since early this morning, and the latest subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates support keeping the advisory intensity at 35 kt. The storm has made its anticipated turn to the northwest and is on on a heading of 310/7 kt. Lester should continue to move in this direction for the next couple of days with a slight increase in forward speed by later today as the cyclone is steered within the flow between a cyclonic gyre to its west and a building ridge over Texas. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one, and is near the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. On this track, the center of Lester should reach the coastline of Mexico by Saturday afternoon or evening. Although Lester is within a thermodynamic environment of very high atmospheric moisture and over warm waters of of 28-29 degrees Celsius, the moderate (15-20 kt) east-northeasterly shear currently affecting the cyclone is forecast to persist through landfall. Therefore, only gradual intensification is expected during that time. After landfall, Lester should rapidly weaken over the rugged terrain of western Mexico, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate on Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and is close to the various intensity consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Lester will reach portions of coastal southern Mexico by this evening, increasing in coverage and intensity Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of southern Mexico on Saturday within the Tropical Storm Warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 13.7N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 14.4N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 15.7N 99.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 17.2N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON THE COAST 48H 18/1200Z 18.7N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto