000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160858 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Lester. While the storm still has a sheared appearance, recent scatterometer data indicate that surface wind speeds have increased in the southern half of the circulation and show an area of 30-32 kt winds. Satellite Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB range between 30-35 kt. Given the potential for undersampling in the satellite winds, the initial intensity for this advisory is set at 35 kt. The cyclone is currently moving north-northwestward at about 4 kt. Model guidance agrees that the storm should turn northwestward shortly within the eastern portion of the monsoonal flow. Over the next couple of days, Lester is expected to increase in forward speed as it moves toward the Mexican coast, and the center is forecast to cross the coastline sometime Saturday afternoon or evening. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains close to the model consensus aids. Lester is expected to remain embedded in moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear for the next 48 h. Global model guidance suggests other atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as environmental moisture and sea surface temperatures, should be conducive for possible strengthening. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast still shows gradual strengthening until landfall along the coast of Mexico. The storm is expected to rapidly weaken once it moves inland over the mountainous terrain. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Lester will reach portions of coastal southern Mexico by this evening, increasing in coverage and intensity Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of southern Mexico on Saturday within the Tropical Storm Warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 13.2N 95.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 15.0N 98.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 16.4N 99.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 18.0N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1800Z 19.0N 103.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci